Researchers, including scientists at Imperial College London and the University of Exeter, warn that global warming is likely to continue and potentially intensify even if the world achieves pure zero emissions Challenge the prevailing belief that the heat will end at this important milestone.
The study, published in Frontiers in Science, proposes a framework for better forecasting future heat، Which emphasizes the need for revised climate mitigation policies.
The current best estimate by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is that net zero carbon emissions will end the heat, Target set for 2050 in line with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. However, the new study introduces uncertainty, suggesting that significant heat may occur after pure zero.
Dr. Sofia Palazzo Corner, lead author of Imperial College London, explains that “Our analysis indicates global warming levers after pure zero، And explains why current estimates are so uncertain.
The important thing for the policy is that a world that expects heat to continue after pure zero has a total heat below 1.5 degrees The carbon budget for will be even smaller. ”
Emphasizing the urgent need to address this threat, Imperial College London professor Javier Rogelj said, “ These estimates come with considerable uncertainty, That is, there is an extraordinary possibility that global warming will continue after pure zero and accelerate dangerous climate change.
The message of taking home is that the future is far more uncertain than we think، And that’s why we need to adjust our climate mitigation policies to prevent further heat after pure zero. ”
The study identifies 26 processes affecting global temperatures, more than half of which are able to run significant heat. These include factors such as changing rainfall patterns, drought and reduction in groundwater emissions due to heat waves, provided by plants “Carbon sinks are an obstacle to effectiveness.
Researchers emphasize the need for a collaboration between diverse climate experts to develop scientific tools that meet the expected levels of global warming Deep in understanding and discovering.
Michael Mann, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, noted the dangerous message of the study but also sought hope, saying، “It reminds us that barriers to climate action are neither physical nor technical.
At the moment they are political. And history teaches us that political barriers can be overcome. ”